We have always individual defensive players (IDP) in the Naked Bootleggers league. It adds a mild layer of extra strategy to the proceedings, and sometimes you get lucky and one of your IDP players pulls off 8 tackles and 2 sacks on Monday night for the weekly win. Not always, but sometimes. In this edition, we investigate when to start thinking about drafting IDPs.

One strategy is to just take them all at the end (we draft 4 starting positions and a backup). So, come about round 18, you just start filling positions. This isn't such a bad way to go - this season the top IDP player is predicted for 89 total season points, and the drop off between the top 60 defensive players ranked by points is 32.37 season points, or 2.13 points per game. Even if you follow the pack and come in very late to the game, you are still likely to pick up a top 12 IDP somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 season points. All that said, there is actually a good chance to pick up IDP players earlier then the 18th and come away with some better overall season points. The following graph shows the running average of the next 12 offensive picks in the draft. In other words, at any given point in the draft, it shows the average season value of the next 12 estimated picks:

This can be a very valuable tool in determining the trends for the next round and identifying pockets where you might be able to pick up a player with a better value. In particular, note the valley starting at about position 136 or so (round 11 in a 12 person league). There is a stretch where tthe average value for the next 12 picks drops below a total season value of 80 - getting as low as 68 at the turn of the 12th round. There are 13 IDP players with predicted season values higher then 68. What this all means is that there are a few key points in the draft where you can take a quality defensive player earlier then the 18th round, and not have to worry that you sacrificed a higher valued offensive player to do it.