This weekend, Marc posted an analysis of overrated and underrated players in the upcoming fantasy football drafts as measured by the Yahoo ranking vs the ADP. Then the excellent Fantasy Football Librarian came out with a list of the average rankings (ARP) for a number of players from some of the more popular websites including yahoo, the NFL, EPSN, CBS and high quality blogs. I ran her numbers through the database again and found some more situations where the players and the "football freaks" (as Marc styles them) differ. Like Marc, I only picked players that have a +- round difference between ARP and ADP, and only players with more then 100 total yahoo points.
Overrated Players
Most of my overrated players were the same as Marc's.
Darren McFadden (OAK). ADP: 58, ARP: 36.1 - Marc called this out on his list - but clearly not just Y! has rookie lust in its eyes. Fox has him at 23 - in the same company as Larry Fitzgerald and Tony Romo! I could be way off on this one, but Oakland just isn't that great a team, and rookie lightning only hits once in a while. I'm not even really down on a ADP of 58, but at least thats closer to reality.
Jonathan Stewart (CAR). ADP: 69, ARP: 47.2 - Highly touted rookie, but facing serious competition at camp from DeAngelo Williams.
Kevin Smith (DET). ADP: 85, ARP: 49.3 -
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) ADP: 105, ARP: 80.4
Brett Farve (NYJ) ADP: 114, ARP: 95.6 - Yes, Everybody Loves Brett (TM), but he is the 17th ranked quarterback with a total value of 269. How bad is that? The 18th QB is Arron Rogers, with a total value of 311.89. Don't let the hype get you.
Felix Jones (DAL) ADP: 123, ARP: 85.9
Chris Brown (HOU) ADP: 133, ARP: 112.41
Chicago Defense ADP: 139, ARP: 118.4 - As Marc pointed out, defenses are pretty overrated in general. Chicago should go pretty high based on reputation; don't bite - the majority of the defenses are between 150 and 120 in total value. If you don't get San Diego in the 8th round, then sit on it for a round or two.
Kevin Jones (CHI) ADP: 145, ARP: 122.2
Ben Watson (NEP) ADP: 155, ARP: 121.6
Seattle Defense ADP: 184, ARP: 120.6 - Same here - Seattle is ranked 13th among defenses, by all rights they shouldn't even be drafted.
Underrated Players
Reggie Bush (NO). ADP: 20, ARP: 32.7 - I'm not buying this one - Reggie is just too expensive for his relative output (128 points). Also, Duce is going to be better then advertised (see below).
Brandon Marshall (DEN). ADP: 40, ARP: 52.6 - He is dropping because of the suspension. The fantasy football draft podcast from ESPN said they thought Marshall was the best of the "missing the first two games club" (along with Ocho Cinco and Steve Smith). I don't know if he's a 3rd rounder or not, but he would be good as your #2 WR in the 4th.
Greg Jennings (GB). ADP: 47 ARP: 59.7 - Personally, I think Jennings (and Green Bay) is going to be just fine. The Brett factor is weighing large here on the minds of the experts.
Calvin Johnson (DET). ADP: 48, ARP: 62.5
Julius Jones (SEA) ADP: 51, ARP: 63.8
Lee Evans (BUF) ADP: 55, ARP: 67.4 - No love for Lee Evans. This guy was all over the map last year, but I think that in general, Buffalo is going to be better and Lee Evans has to be a big part of that. I think the ADP is about right.
Dallas Clark (IND) ADP: 63, ARP: 81.3 - Quick, name a tight end! If you said Antonio Gates or Dallas clark, congratulations - you are a typical fantasy football drafter. I wouldn't take Clark this high. Tight-ends are losing their value in the current NFL, and Indy already has lots of targets to throw balls to. I think Clark will fall off this year.
Chris Chambers (SD) ADP: 65, ARP: 81.4
Chester Taylor (MIN) ADP: 76, ARP 88.7 - They are still sharing the carries in the great white north. Until Chester gets completely replaced by the anointed purplish one, he is worthy of a mid round look.
Deuce McAllister (NO) ADP 83, ARP 109.3 - I'm high on Deuce. I think he is going to have a fine year - he should get the majority of the carries, and probably most of the end-zone work. Unless Reggie really comes out and shows us a different player then the last two years, I think you will quickly see who Brees prefers when the points are on the line.
Eli Manning (NYG) ADP 89, ARP: 102.3
Anthony Gonzalez (IND) ADP: 91, ARP 107.4
Minnesota Defense ADP 95, ARP 109.1
Jake Delhomme (CAR) ADP 103, ARP 115.8